MyDD :: The four daily trackers have come in

The four daily trackers have come in

by Beltway Dem, Tue Oct 07, 2008 at 01:22:22 PM EST

Rasmussen reports the same eight point race he saw yesterday:

Obama 52
McCain 44

Rasmussen sees the race as essentially frozen for nearly the last two weeks. He observes:

This is the second straight day that Obama has led by eight percentage points, his largest lead of the year. For the past twelve days, Obama's support has ranged from 50% to 52% while McCain has been at 44% of 45% every day.

Research 2000/Daily Kos likewise essentially sees the race as static, with Obama where he has been for the prior three days and McCain rising one point from 40 yesterday to 41 today:

Obama 52
McCain 41

The one that has been giving some folks fits is from Diageo Hotline which shows considerable tightening in the race:

Obama 46
McCain 44

But this one just seems to reflect an unusual night of polling for this outfit. Gallup Daily just came out, and it shows Obama's lead increasing by a point:

Obama 51
McCain 42

The spread yesterday was 50-42. Comments Gallup:

The nine percentage point lead in Oct. 4-6 tracking matches Obama's highest to date for the campaign, and the highest for either candidate. Obama led McCain by 49% to 40% near the tail end of his international trip in late July.

All-in-all, it looks like Obama goes into the debate this evening with a strong hand. I think the variations we're seeing in the trackers from day-to-day may be just random fluctuations on the collection of data.

Update: Totally off topic, but go and check out these great pictures of Obama holding lots of different babies.

Tags: Barack Obama, John McCain (all tags)

Permalink :: 11 Comments :: Post a Comment

But... but.... but.... (2.00 / 2)

PANIC!!!!!!!!!

But in the unlikely story that is America, there has never been anything false about hope.

by thezzyzx on Tue Oct 07, 2008 at 01:26:10 PM EST

We Democrats (2.00 / 2)

are so conditioned to lose that when a random number comes in, we think, "Okay, I knew it was too good to be true."

That's it, baby; let's go win this election!

by Beltway Dem on Tue Oct 07, 2008 at 01:29:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: We Democrats (2.00 / 4)

yes, and its annoying and those people need to stop.

Dream for tomorrow but fight for it today.

by TruthMatters on Tue Oct 07, 2008 at 01:30:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: We Democrats (2.00 / 2)

The only thing they have to fear is...

ACK! A NEW POLL!

RUN AWAY! The Big Bad Republicans are coming!

Feh. They got nothing but lies and smears.

Look at it this way, IF they win with that crap, it's not like President Obama could pull these people out of the ditch anyway?

A modicum of intelligence will be required for that, if they elect McCain and Sister Sarah, we are done anyway.

On Nov 4th, we elected "the smart guy" and the world celebrated!

by WashStateBlue on Tue Oct 07, 2008 at 01:37:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

That's so true (2.00 / 2)

The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.

by nrafter530 on Tue Oct 07, 2008 at 01:42:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Yes, it's annoying... (2.00 / 0)

Sometimes, I still doubt all these polls and wonder if it's all top good to be true. Honestly, I won't rest easily until November 5 when we all will have seen the victory with our own eyes. And whenever I start to worry, I donate some more $$$$ on ActBlue and/or schedule another day at the phone bank to calm my nerves. It really works! :-D

We shall overcome!

by atdleft on Tue Oct 07, 2008 at 02:43:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

If anything... (2.00 / 2)

I'm thinking that the polls will make McCain desperate. He'll take some pretty wild chances.

Even money says the crowd boos him after he brings up Ayers or Rezko.

The pebbles have voted and the avalanche has begun.

President-Elect "That One"

by Dracomicron on Tue Oct 07, 2008 at 01:31:46 PM EST

Re: If anything... (2.00 / 1)

Go over to Pollster.com and look at their pretty electoral map. They put Obama at 290 last evening; they have him at 320 today.

That's it, baby; let's go win this election!

by Beltway Dem on Tue Oct 07, 2008 at 01:40:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The four daily trackers have come in (2.00 / 2)

The Hotline poll changed party ID weighting overnight from +5% Democrats to +2% Democrats, whereas Rasmussen just upgraded their party ID weight to show about a 6.25% advantage for Democrats.

+2% Democratic advantage is WAY too low. Not in this environment, not with the way the Republican brand was damaged even before the Wall Street/bailout issue.

Their sample is notoriously small (under 300, I believe) so they probably just caught a flawed sample this time. Watch for the "correction" tomorrow.

by devilrays on Tue Oct 07, 2008 at 01:44:46 PM EST

Yes, I noticed that as well... (2.00 / 1)

Maybe Diageo-Hotline has it right... If we were still in 2004! But today, I seriously doubt Democrats only have a 2% edge. It seems like every two weeks one of the trackers takes a wild turn that makes us ask "WTF??!!" I hereby nominate Diageo-Hotline as this week's "WTF??!!" ;-)

We shall overcome!

by atdleft on Tue Oct 07, 2008 at 02:38:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The four daily trackers have come in (2.00 / 0)

The damn has burst. Once Obama passed that "commander in chief" threshold in the first debate, any doubts about his readiness to be President were fully erased. And then add in the economic crisis and McCain's erratic loony-ness and Palin's frightening incompetence, the wave for Obama turned into a tsunami.

Latest proof of the turn to Obama - the new surveyUSA PA poll has Obama up 55-40, validating the two recent polls showing Obama up big in PA.

by ProfessorReo on Tue Oct 07, 2008 at 02:52:56 PM EST

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